No NFL team has been more profitable at the sportsbook than the Detroit Lions over the past three seasons.
Under fiery head coach Dan Campbell, Detroit has gone from loveable underdog to Super Bowl contender, boasting a 37-17 ATS record since 2021 (68.5%). And while the Lions keep covering, their place in the betting market is mutating.
Detroit was a point-spread favorite only five times in Campbell’s first two seasons but 2023 saw a shift in expectations, as Detroit gave points in 16 of its 20 total games (including playoffs).
The bar is set even higher in 2024, with the Lions near the top of the futures odds. Can they move forward after last year’s excruciating NFC Championship collapse, or has Motown missed its window?
Here’s my 2024 Detroit Lions betting preview and NFL picks for the season.
Detroit Lions odds
| Win Super Bowl | +1200 |
| Win conference | +550 |
| Win division | +135 |
| Make playoffs | -245 |
| Over 10.5 wins | -135 |
| Under 10.5 wins | +110 |
Best futures bet: Win NFC (+550)
The Detroit Lions have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL and retained the bulk of their starters for another run at the Big Game. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson’s commitment to the quest is just as huge. The fact that this Detroit scoring attack has a higher ceiling than last year’s output is banana balls.
The glaring gaps in the secondary were quickly addressed in the offseason with instant-impact free agents and the first two draft selections. The Lions will be battle-tested in the NFC North along with measuring sticks versus San Francisco and Dallas along the way.
Detroit Lions at a glance: Lion tamers
Market perception and their exploding popularity could finally see the Lions’ ATS success under Campbell dry up. Look-ahead lines have Detroit laying four points or more in seven of their 13 games as a favorite. The 2024 slate is a tougher task than previous years, featuring eight games versus 2023 postseason teams.
What will win bets: Offense
From the offensive line to the running backs to the receiving corps, Jared Goff has it all. He’s ranked among the Top 10 passers in the league the previous two seasons along with 59 total touchdowns. Yet, he doesn’t get his flowers. At +2,000, he’s a sneaky MVP option.
When Detroit gets inside the opponents’ 20-yard line, it doesn’t miss often. This offense scores a touchdown on 66% of its trips to the red zone, with a Matrix-sized arsenal of options including sophomore sensations Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta, who combined for 21 TDs as rookies.
What will lose bets: Piles of points
It’s safe to say the Lions are no longer Cinderellas. Their future odds peg them among the NFL’s elite and operators are reporting that Detroit is drawing the most tickets and overall handle in terms of division, conference and Super Bowl books.
Thirteen of the 2023 opening spreads moved toward the Lions, with an average adjustment of three points, and bettors will see similar inflation in 2024. Of their 37 ATS victories under Dan Campbell, 22 have come as underdogs. This year, Detroit is a pup only four times and three of those spreads are shorter than +2. All good things come to an end.
Detroit Lions schedule + spot bet: Built Ford tough
Heavy lies the crown of the NFC North and for the first time since “Whoomp! There It Is,” came out, the Lions play a first-place schedule. As mentioned, eight of those clashes come against playoff qualifiers which has Detroit’s SOS sitting Top 12 in both win percentage and projected wins.
If you’re planning to take any Detroit futures, do so now. The early workings of the sked have the Lions inside Ford Field for three of their first four contests before a Week 5 bye. They’re 14-6 SU and 19-8 ATS at home since 2021 and laying -3.5 or higher in those first four showings. A probable 4-0 start will juice their odds even more.
The 2024 schedule keeps the Lions indoors for the most part, with only three open-air affairs; at Green Bay in Week 9, at Chicago in Week 16 (chilly), and at San Francisco in Week 17 (scene of NFC title collapse).
Detroit’s offense saw a drop in production outdoors last season, scoring 21 points or fewer in four of its six total open-air contests. Goff’s numbers slip under the sun as well, with his completion rate and yards per attempt tumbling well below his indoor pace.
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | vs. Los Angeles |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Tampa Bay |
| 3 | Sunday, September 22 | @ Arizona |
| 4 | Monday, September 30 | vs. Seattle |
| 5 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | @ Dallas |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | @ Minnesota |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Tennessee |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Green Bay |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | @ Houston |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | vs. Jacksonville |
| 12 | Sunday, November 24 | @ Indianapolis |
| 13 | Thursday, November 28 | vs. Chicago |
| 14 | Thursday, December 5 | vs. Green Bay |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. Buffalo |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Chicago |
| 17 | Monday, December 30 | @ San Francisco |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | vs. Minnesota |
Spot bet: Week 10 @ Houston (+1, 50)
If the tall total tells you anything, this will be a fun one.
Detroit is a rare pup at Houston for Sunday Night Football in Week 10. The non-conference clash is the second of back-to-back road games for the Lions (at Green Bay in Week 9) and their fourth road outings in five weeks, starting at Dallas in Week 6 and at Minnesota in Week 7.
Detroit went 8-2 ATS on the road in 2023 and is 18-9 ATS as a visitor since 2021. And while it’s had mixed results versus AFC opponents (6-8-1 SU) under Campbell, the spread success is solid at 10-5 ATS.
Scoring down for St. Brown
- Awards
- TDs
- Yards
| To win MVP | +25000 |
| To win OPOY | +2200 |
| To lead NFL in receiving TD | +1400 |
| To lead NFL in receiving yards | +1100 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 8.5 receiving TD | +120 |
| Under 8.5 receiving TD | -140 |
| 10+ receiving TD | +175 |
| 13+ receiving TD | +850 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 1,250.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Under 1,250.5 receiving yards | -110 |
| Over 105.5 receptions | -110 |
| Under 105.5 receptions | -110 |
BACK TO TOP
Best prop: Under 8.5 Touchdowns (-140)
Anyone who watched the Netflix “Receiver” docuseries knows the “Sun God” is no joke. And thanks to his dad, former Mr. Universe John Brown, you know Coca-Cola will get you right. All the Coke in the world may not get Amon-Ra St. Brown to nine touchdowns in 2024, however.
That’s in no way a shot at the Lions’ No. 1 WR, but more a celebration of their embarrassment of riches on offense. Detroit has two 10-touchdown scorers in the backfield and a budding TE who also grabbed 10 TDs as a rookie.
St. Brown ranked fourth among receivers in red-zone targets and scored six of his 10 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line. LaPorta emerged as the primary RZ threat in the second half of the season, with seven of his 10 TDs inside the red zone. Player projections sit below 8.5 TD grabs from Amon Ra, who will garner a lot more attention from rival defenses in 2024.
Detroit Lions trend: Home Overs
With a high-octane offense and suspect secondary, the Lions were a tailor-made Over team — especially inside the fast track at Ford Field. Detroit finished 7-3 Over/Under at home in 2023 and is 17-10 O/U as a host since 2021 (63% Overs).
Last season, Lions’ home games pumped out almost 52 combined points versus an average closing total just shy of 47 O/U. The 2024 look-ahead lines have Detroit’s average home Over/Under at 49 points and four of those numbers are 50 or higher.
With the emphasis on improving the defense this offseason — namely not giving up big passing plays — this home Over trend could get flipped on its ear in the early workings of the schedule.
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Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he’s honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.
He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous “NFL Underdogs” column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason’s first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.
On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast – WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio – he’s had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers’ flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.
His best advice for bettors new and old is “Handicapping isn’t a ‘one size fits all’ process. The impact and importance of information varies from bet to bet. Treat each wager different than the last.”
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